As the global economic growth is expected to return to the pre-COVID-19 level in 2021, coupled with the acceleration of information and communication technology (ICT) spending, 5G deployment and 5G mobile phone shipments have increased significantly, artificial intelligence (AI) ) driven by the expansion of applications to the edge and the expansion of demand for high-end 5NM node process chips, industry professionals estimate that the global semiconductor industry has a promising future in the next 10 years.
The sales of semiconductor equipment and chips are expected to rise to 200 billion in the early 2030s. US dollars and 1 trillion US dollars.
The International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), Semiconductor Digest and The Edge Markets cited industry figures at the Industrial Strategy Seminar (ISS) held at SEMI a few days ago and reported that due to the impact of the epidemic, global GDP fell by 4% in 2020.
However, with the successive introduction of various vaccines, global GDP is expected to grow by 5 to 7% in 2021, returning to the level before the epidemic.
However, the pace of recovery in various regions will be very inconsistent.
For example, the current GDP growth rate in China has returned to the level before the epidemic, the Asian region will also respond quickly under the lead of China, and the United States and Europe are expected to be in the second quarter of 2021 and the fourth quarter of 2022 and Latin America will not recover until 2023 at the earliest.
Since the US and China account for more than half of the global GDP, they will drive most of the recovery in 2021.
Linx Consulting, an electronic materials market researcher, said that with the emergence of 5G Internet of Things (IoT) solutions and the rise of on-chip data analysis technology, the semiconductor industry is entering a new wave of development supercycle.
The previous supercycle included PC adoption driven by the Internet and web browsers and the mobile phone revolution driven by 3G networks.
Research organization IDC said that 5G deployment, data centers, and work-at-home needs will become key drivers for the growth of the global semiconductor market in 2021.
It is estimated that the market size that year is expected to grow by 7% to reach US$450 billion, and thereafter it will continue to grow at a rate of 4 to 6% annually until 2024, reaching US$500 billion.
In addition, the acceleration of overall ICT expenditures, including IoT, cloud computing, big data analysis, robotics, and AI, is also a catalyst for the growth of the semiconductor market.
Among them, the computing field, including data centers, PCs, and peripherals, will grow to 170 billion U.S. dollars in 2024, and the mobile phone field will also grow to 144 billion U.S. dollars.
The combined annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of the computing and mobile phone market from 2019 to 2024 is 4.5%. As far as the 5G system is concerned, the CAGR will be as high as 110%.
AI applications will not only develop rapidly in data centers but also extend to the various edge and terminal devices, thereby driving the adoption of more semiconductor chips.
It is estimated that the number of chips equipped in edge systems will grow from 1.5 billion at present to 3.5 billion in 2024, and about one-third of edge systems will have AI processing capabilities.
It is estimated that the CAGR of the edge AI system will reach 17.5%.
VLSI Research said that the surge in online shopping and the popularization of public clouds caused by the epidemic has promoted a substantial growth in server demand, making cloud computing the main driving force for the growth of the chip industry in 2021.
In addition, the increase in 5G mobile phone shipments and the accelerated deployment of 5G networks that were previously delayed due to the impact of the epidemic will also promote the growth of the semiconductor market in 2021.
The agency estimates that global semiconductor chip sales will increase by 8% annually in 2021.
Among them, DRAM and NAND sales will increase by 13% and 12% annually, becoming the main force driving the growth of overall semiconductor sales.
In the same year, the total capital expenditure of the semiconductor industry will increase by 7% after an increase of 8% in 2020.
As the overall electronics industry occupies an important position in global economic growth, the prospects of the global semiconductor industry are promising in the next 10 years.
It is estimated that in the early 2030s, global semiconductor equipment and chip sales will rise to US$200 billion and US$1 trillion, respectively.